Are England Good Value For Euro 2020 ?

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Euro 2020 promises to be a very different kind of tournament.  Celebrating 60 years of the competition, UEFA has decided to increase the number of teams involved from 16 to 24.  In addition, instead of one or two host countries, Euro 2020 will see matches taking place in 12 “host cities” across Europe  – from the initial matches on 12 June 2020 to the Final on 12 July. Wembley Stadium in London and Hampden Park in Glasgow are two of the venues selected.   The two Semi-Finals and the Final itself will take place in Wembley.

Bookmakers have identified France as favourite to win Euro 2020 with bookies bet365 and betway offering odds of 4/1.  England are second favourites with odds of 5/1 from bet365, followed by Belgium at 13/2 from William Hill and Coral, then Germany (9/1 with bet365), Spain (also 9/1 from betway), the Netherlands (12/1 from 888sport), Italy and Portugal (both on 16/1 from betfair and 888sport respectively).  

But contrast England’s position with that of Croatia which is languishing at mid-table in the bookmakers’ estimations, with betting odds of 25/1 from bet365 and skybet.  Yet the two teams are in a similar position just now, with England heading Group A and needing only 1 point from the remaining two games to be played, and Croatia heading Group E and again needing only 1 further point.  

Looking at the FIFA world rankings,England are ranked fourth on 1662 points but Croatia is eighth on 1625, not far behind in the scheme of things.  And one can argue that Group A has been a relatively easy draw for England, featuring Kosovo, Montenegro and Bulgaria as well as the well-respected Czech Republic.  In contrast, Croatia has had a tougher group including Hungary, Slovakia, Azerbaijan and Wales.  

Also, when considering the disparity between the odds offered on the two teams, remember too that Croatia reached the 2018 World Cup Final with team captain Luka Modric awarded Player of the Tournament for his performances.  This team has great quality and can perform at the highest level!

So we think that England do not represent great value for a bet on the outcome of the Euro 2020 tournament, whilst Croatia for example looks to be better value for the punter.